Mantas Kondratavičius vs Andre Petroski

Style Matchup

UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.

Kondratavičius 9-1-0

+3.67STR DIFF/MIN50% FIN

SLpM4.97

STR ACC65%

STR DEF57%

TD AVG2.80

TD ACC60%

TD DEF91%

SUB AVG0.90

Petroski 13-6-0

-0.24STR DIFF/MIN38% FIN

SLpM2.75

STR ACC49%

STR DEF51%

TD AVG3.13

TD ACC52%

TD DEF86%

SUB AVG1.20

Last 5 in the UFC — Kondratavičius

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Mantas Kondratavicius Antonio Trocoli	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Mantas Kondratavicius Djani Barbir	KO/TKO Punch	1	1:06

Last 5 in the UFC — Petroski

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
L	Cody Brundage	KO/TKO Punches	2	0:44
L	Cam Rowston	KO/TKO Punches	1	2:41
L	Edmen Shahbazyan	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Rodolfo Vieira	U-DEC	3	5:00
W	Dylan Budka	U-DEC	3	5:00

Odds — Moneyline

Per book · BestFightOdds, fetched Nov 1, 2026. Consensus (modal): Mantas Kondratavičius -286 · Andre Petroski +220.

BOOK	KONDRATAVIČIUS	PETROSKI
BetRivers	-286	+220
Caesars	-290	+235
Polymarket	-285	+270
Unibet	-286	+220

COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.

Model

Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.

40.3%

MODEL — PETROSKI

29.7%

NO-VIG MARKET

+10.6

EDGE (PTS)

+148

FAIR LINE · BET TO +131

Drivers: striking differential +3.67 vs -0.24, TD avg 2.80 vs 3.13, sub avg 0.90 vs 1.20 (Kondratavičius first). Model and market agree on the favourite; the disagreement is the price.

Fight Sim10,000 SIMS

Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.

SIM — KONDRATAVIČIUS10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — PETROSKI

78.7%

19.5%

MARKET (NO-VIG)SIM − MARKET: KONDRATAVIČIUS +8.4 · PETROSKI -10.2MARKET (NO-VIG)

70.3%

29.7%

FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS

ROUND 18.1%

ROUND 212.8%

ROUND 316.8%

DECISION62.3%

62.3%

GOES THE DISTANCE

87.7%

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

73.0%

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

12.9

MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)

SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS	SIM MEAN	P(OVER)
Mantas Kondratavičius sig strikes O/U 49.5	44.8	39.9% over
Mantas Kondratavičius takedowns O/U 0.5	0.74	54.1% over
Andre Petroski sig strikes O/U 29.5	28.3	47.1% over
Andre Petroski takedowns O/U 1.5	1.30	37.5% over

Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled all-division detail sample (168 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — the gap vs the market above is the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. (Middleweight sample too thin (15 decided < 30).) Sim aggregate SUB share is 17.3% vs the calibration target 23.2%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.

News Must-Check

What gets checked before this fight is bettable.

CHECK	STATUS	SOURCE
Weigh-ins	Fri Nov 6 — results land here fight week	MMA Fighting / MMA Junkie
Card status	Full card as of Nov 1, 2026	ESPN card / UFC.com
Line watch	Moneyline above refreshes on the fight-week line pulls	BestFightOdds

Tale of the Tape