Gabriel Lorenço vs Thomas Petersen

Style Matchup

UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.

Lorenço 8-1-0

+5.91STR DIFF/MIN100% FIN

SLpM9.84

STR ACC46%

STR DEF46%

TD AVG0.00

TD ACC0%

TD DEF100%

SUB AVG0.00

Petersen 11-5-0

+0.47STR DIFF/MIN25% FIN

SLpM3.04

STR ACC59%

STR DEF54%

TD AVG2.95

TD ACC42%

TD DEF87%

SUB AVG0.40

Last 5 in the UFC — Lorenço

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Gabriel Lorenco Charlie Cleveland	KO/TKO Punches	1	2:02

Last 5 in the UFC — Petersen

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
L	Valter Walker	SUB Calf Slicer	1	1:32
W	Guilherme Pat	M-DEC	3	5:00
L	Vitor Petrino	KO/TKO Punch	3	0:26
W	Don'Tale Mayes	U-DEC	3	5:00
L	Shamil Gaziev	KO/TKO Punch	1	3:12

Odds — Moneyline

Per book · BestFightOdds, fetched Nov 1, 2026. Consensus (modal): Gabriel Lorenço +138 · Thomas Petersen -175.

BOOK	LORENÇO	PETERSEN
BetRivers	+138	-175
BetWay	+140	-175
Caesars	+140	-165
Polymarket	+150	-156
Unibet	+138	-175

COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.

Model

Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.

54.1%

MODEL — LORENÇO

39.8%

NO-VIG MARKET

+14.3

EDGE (PTS)

-118

FAIR LINE · BET TO -133

Drivers: striking differential +5.91 vs +0.47, TD avg 0.00 vs 2.95, sub avg 0.00 vs 0.40 (Lorenço first). Model and market price this fight differently — that disagreement is the point of the section.

Fight Sim10,000 SIMS

Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.

SIM — LORENÇO10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — PETERSEN

86.2%

12.9%

MARKET (NO-VIG)SIM − MARKET: LORENÇO +46.4 · PETERSEN -47.3MARKET (NO-VIG)

39.8%

60.2%

FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS

ROUND 111.6%

ROUND 230.9%

ROUND 332.4%

DECISION25.1%

25.1%

GOES THE DISTANCE

77.9%

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

43.4%

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

10.9

MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)

SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS	SIM MEAN	P(OVER)
Gabriel Lorenço sig strikes O/U 39.5	41.2	52.8% over
Gabriel Lorenço takedowns O/U 0.5	0.29	25.6% over
Thomas Petersen sig strikes O/U 39.5	36.2	42.0% over
Thomas Petersen takedowns O/U 0.5	1.12	66.4% over

Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled Heavyweight detail sample (41 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — the gap vs the market above is the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. Sim aggregate SUB share is 2.5% vs the calibration target 7.3%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.

News Must-Check

What gets checked before this fight is bettable.

CHECK	STATUS	SOURCE
Weigh-ins	Fri Nov 6 — results land here fight week	MMA Fighting / MMA Junkie
Card status	Full card as of Nov 1, 2026	ESPN card / UFC.com
Line watch	Moneyline above refreshes on the fight-week line pulls	BestFightOdds

Tale of the Tape