Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli

Style Matchup

UFCStats career rates. Striking differential is the single strongest public predictor in the model.

Raposo 11-3-0

-1.01STR DIFF/MIN0% FIN

SLpM1.91

STR ACC38%

STR DEF60%

TD AVG1.98

TD ACC36%

TD DEF68%

SUB AVG0.00

Degli 15-3-0

+1.44STR DIFF/MIN100% FIN

SLpM1.95

STR ACC67%

STR DEF75%

TD AVG4.61

TD ACC50%

TD DEF0%

SUB AVG4.60

Last 5 in the UFC — Raposo

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Allan Nascimento	S-DEC	3	5:00
W	Azat Maksum	U-DEC	3	5:00
L	Sumudaerji	S-DEC	3	5:00
L	Andre Lima	S-DEC	3	5:00
L	Jake Hadley	SUB Rear Naked Choke	2	3:11

Last 5 in the UFC — Degli

	OPPONENT	METHOD	RD	TIME
W	Paris Moran	SUB Rear Naked Choke	2	4:46

Odds — Moneyline

Per book · BestFightOdds, fetched Nov 1, 2026. Consensus (modal): Mitch Raposo +195 · Marcos Degli -250.

BOOK	RAPOSO	DEGLI
BetRivers	+195	-250
BetWay	+200	-250
Caesars	+205	-250
Polymarket	+213	-223
Unibet	+195	-250

COMING SOONMethod, round, distance & stat props — coming soon.

Model

Model v0 — stat-differential logistic (striking differential, TD avg, sub avg, finish rate, UFC win %, reach, age), each input sample-shrunk by UFC bouts on record. Not backtested.

73.5%

MODEL — DEGLI

67.8%

NO-VIG MARKET

+5.7

EDGE (PTS)

-278

FAIR LINE · BET TO -326

Drivers: striking differential -1.01 vs +1.44, TD avg 1.98 vs 4.61, sub avg 0.00 vs 4.60 (Raposo first). Model and market agree on the favourite; the disagreement is the price.

Fight Sim10,000 SIMS

Minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats career rates — output distributions, not point picks.

SIM — RAPOSO10,000 SIMULATIONSSIM — DEGLI

28.8%

66.8%

MARKET (NO-VIG)SIM − MARKET: RAPOSO -3.4 · DEGLI -1.0MARKET (NO-VIG)

32.2%

67.8%

FINISH BY ROUND% OF ALL SIMS

ROUND 110.8%

ROUND 210.1%

ROUND 310.9%

DECISION68.2%

68.2%

GOES THE DISTANCE

85.6%

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS

75.4%

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS

12.8

MEAN FIGHT TIME (MIN)

SIM OUTPUT DISTRIBUTIONS	SIM MEAN	P(OVER)
Mitch Raposo sig strikes O/U 29.5	25.4	37.4% over
Mitch Raposo takedowns O/U 1.5	1.77	53.6% over
Marcos Degli sig strikes O/U 39.5	34.4	37.5% over
Marcos Degli takedowns O/U 1.5	1.18	32.2% over

Fight Sim — prototype, not backtested. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule or reach. Its submission splits rest on thin defensive data in this matchup and are the least certain outputs in the panel. The sim was calibrated only to the pooled all-division detail sample (168 decided bouts), never tuned to the market — the gap vs the market above is the sim's honest output, not a betting recommendation. (Flyweight sample too thin (6 decided < 30).) Sim aggregate SUB share is 27.5% vs the calibration target 23.2%: treat the sub splits as the least reliable outputs.

News Must-Check

What gets checked before this fight is bettable.

CHECK	STATUS	SOURCE
Weigh-ins	Fri Nov 6 — results land here fight week	MMA Fighting / MMA Junkie
Card status	Full card as of Nov 1, 2026	ESPN card / UFC.com
Line watch	Moneyline above refreshes on the fight-week line pulls	BestFightOdds

Tale of the Tape