Sim #7359 of 10,000 · the outcome closest to the 10k medians (winner, method, finish round, both strike totals) · this run: Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO, Round 3 · UFC Fight Night · Saturday, November 7, 2026 · Meta APEX · Las Vegas, NV
Waldo Cortes Acosta
17-4-0 · SIM 67.1%
CONDITION
0:00
ROUND 1 OF 5
DISTANCE
Johnny Walker
23-10-0 (1 NC) · SIM 32.3%
CONDITION
LIVE SIM WIN PROB
Waldo Cortes Acosta
17-4-0 · 10K-SIM WIN 67.1%
SIG STRIKES0
HEAD0BODY0LEG0
TAKEDOWNS0
CONTROL0:00
KNOCKDOWNS0
SUB ATTEMPTS0
DAMAGE DEALT0
ACOSTA
WALKER
Johnny Walker
23-10-0 (1 NC) · 10K-SIM WIN 32.3%
SIG STRIKES0
HEAD0BODY0LEG0
TAKEDOWNS0
CONTROL0:00
KNOCKDOWNS0
SUB ATTEMPTS0
DAMAGE DEALT0
SIM
ACOSTA vs WALKER
Press play — the most typical Acosta vs Walker fight from 10,000 simulations, played out exchange by exchange.
SIM
Round by Round
The picked sim's own round lines (UFCStats-style) — each row locks in as the round ends.
ACOSTA SIG
KD
TD
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WALKER SIG
KD
TD
CTRL
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R2
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R3
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R4
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R5
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Final Stat Lines
Fighter
Sig strikes (landed / thrown)
KD
TD (landed / att)
Control
Sub att
Prototype sim — not backtested. This is one representative fight drawn from the same 10,000-sim prototype behind the fight-page panel: minute-stepped Monte Carlo on UFCStats rates, calibrated only to heavyweight finish rates, never tuned to the market. It does not yet adjust for strength of schedule, reach, or Acosta’s untested championship rounds. Not a betting recommendation.